EU-UK negotiations: Analysis

Summary of the Implications for Scotland of the EU-UK future relationship agreement
On 24 December, the UK Government and the EU announced agreement on core elements of the future relationship. The Scottish Government has conducted initial analysis of the agreements and their implications for Scotland. This assessment confirms the Scottish Government’s long-standing view that Scotland will be worse off outside the EU.

Scotland’s people will no longer be able to work, study and travel freely in the EU. Fewer people will migrate to Scotland, making our economy, culture and wider society poorer. Cooperation with the EU on security will be less effective, which means Scotland’s police and judicial system will have reduced capacity and capability to combat crime. The UK will be out of the EU Single Market – Scottish businesses exporting goods and services will not be able to trade with the EU like they did before, making them less competitive. Scottish Government modelling estimates that, even with a deal of the kind the UK government has negotiated, Scotland’s GDP could be around 6% lower by 2030 than it would be with EU membership (£9bn in 2016 cash terms).

Source: Scottish Government